Dino Baskovic Can’t Lose

Over the years, I've mingled online in one form or another with the web greats.  Rubel, Garrett, Zeldman -- even a guy by the name of Berners-Lee.  But nothing compares to this, by far my proudest ping.

Note to Chase: do whatever Kevin Smith says, no matter how absurd.  And I'm really sorry about the slam, but it was great to see you again with the Mrs.

As I browse through some of my favorite all-time Super Bowl ads (and am still torn between "Wassup" and "Gerbils" but that's just me) I can't help but think of all the hubbub surrounding Pepsi's call to sit out this year's ad blitz in place of a philanthropic web campaign called the Pepsi Refresh Project.  The news first broke back in early January (February for some slowpokes) and had me first thinking, "Good for them, why not try?"  Who needs to spend millions of dollars year after year on silly little spots when you can save the world through social media?  From a marketer's perspective, what better brand refresh is there than that?

Fast forward to tonight's game, and I can't help but wonder if Pepsi is wishing they hadn't bucked the trend.  SI writer Richard Deitsch reports that CBS expects record ratings for Super Bowl XLIV.  As Deitsch highlights, it's the first time in ages that both top seeds from the AFC and NFC made the game.  President Obama is part of the pregame show.  The Saints' take their first ever shot at the Lombardi trophy, pre- or post-Katrina, while the Colts aim to secure a dynasty.  And while it's never been achieved, over 100 million viewers may tune in for epic football, The Who and Lady Gaga at halftime and -- o, yeah -- the ads.

Honestly, though, it Pepsi's bet on the big game going to fizzle or go flat?  I can't say for sure.  Nobody can except consumers.  I'm rooting for the socially responsible side of Pepsi but, after recent reconsideration, am befuddled by their brand strategy.  Think about it:

1. It's all about the eyeballs.  Maybe Pepsi figures this won't impact bottom line one way or another.  I call that bluff.  Business is business, nothing personal.  This is one of the biggest TV events each year in the United States.  Tonight's game may be one for the record books.  By all means, seed some good deeds, but explain to me again why you don't want to be party of broadcast history?

2. Videos go viral.  By the way, this is nothing new.  Perhaps Super Bowl ads are horribly overpriced, but so what?  They go on YouTube, are blogged, shared, tweeted, rated, you name it.  They live online forever, their brand messages forever etched into our collective psyches and bemused by Monday morning quarterbacks after many a Super Bowl Sunday to come.

3. Beat Coke.  That's Pepsi's job.  Stave off the imitators, separate fashion from fad (diet, flavored, energy) and out-muscle their biggest competitor.  Oh, and appease shareholders.  That too.  Maybe Coke's current Facebook campaign is their way of playing catchup, but you don't see Coca-Cola backing down on ad spend.  Heck, they even give a 20-second sneak peek of their two spots just for partaking in the promotion.  They can do both, so why can't Pepsi?

Media circles were abuzz over Pepsi's move, and PR nodded its head at the kind of coverage money can't buy.  That was four weeks ago.  Not yesterday's but last month's news. The Refresh Project will live for some time and make the world a better place, I truly hope.  But that's not why I buy soft drinks.

We're just moments away from prime time and the pundits are feverishly postdating their analyses.  Will the experiment work?  We shall see.  In the spirit of full disclosure, I should reveal that I prefer Coke over Pepsi, which has subjected me to near fist fights over the years.  And this is a good time to put down my blog, pick up the remote and join the rest of the world to watch the Saints beat the Colts, 31-24.

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